Finnish weather forecast in 20 seconds

In this 20-second clip from a Finnish television newscast, anchor Mika Saukkonen introduces weatherman Pekka Pouta, who issues a classic warning:


Link: https://youtu.be/8sS7-CfPn6Q

If you can spare another 21 seconds, here’s a follow-up:


Link: https://youtu.be/p0Laj6GN4Tw

Incidentally, it might surprise you to learn that tomorrow, December 1, is the official start of winter, or as close to an official start as you can get. The usual convention is meteorology is that the winter months in the Northern hemisphere are December, January, and February. Likewise, spring is March through May, summer is June-August, and autumn or fall is September-November. That’s also in keeping with the traditional school calendar in which the summer vacation months are June, July, and August (though it seems to run a little earlier now at least some places).

Of course, we’re quite often told that Northern Hemisphere winter “officially” begins on the date of the December solstice (which this year takes place on December 22 at 0449 UTC, or December 21 at 11:49 pm Eastern Standard Time), and if you want to think of that as the start of the season, that’s OK with me. After all, early December can be pretty warm (unless you live in Finland or some place like that), and there’s an old saying that March comes in like a lion. But there’s really nothing “official” about this; it’s just something that’s become a tradition in journalism.



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Classic film dance scenes reedited to “Uptown Funk”

I’m sure a lot of work (not by me!) went into matching dance routines from 66 classic musicals to the song “Uptown Funk” by Mark Ronson featuring Bruno Mars (the official music video for which can be found on YouTube here.)


Link: https://youtu.be/M1F0lBnsnkE

For the names of the films, turn on closed captioning. (You can do that by mousing over the video, then clicking on “CC” in the group of buttons at the bottom right.)

For a couple of similar efforts, see this post from January of 2014. Update: A more recent dance scene mashup also based on “Uptown Funk” can be found here.

(On a completely different front, this post from a while back featuring Kid President’s Thanksgiving message has been getting a lot of hits recently apparently from people passing around the link, so you might want to check it out.)



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Denunciations of the Paris attacks by comics from opposite sides of the world

(A caution to sensitive visitors: Both clips below involve the use of strong language, entirely justified in my view.)

First, one you’ve likely already seen: John Oliver condemns the terrorists and celebrates France:


Link: https://youtu.be/glxh9ZgP7kc

Below, engineer turned writer and comic Azeem Banatwalla goes off on a similar rant from India but also addresses the history of Islam and terrorism and makes the valid point that a response that callously slaughters innocent people is itself arguably terrorism and, even ignoring the moral objection, encourages more people to strike back as terrorists themselves.


Link: https://youtu.be/ti52pq1qsng

(Overlook the fact that the subtitles misspell the name of the president of the French Republic.)



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Oklahoma congressman with sensible words on the refugee crisis

Republican Congressman Steve Russell of Oklahoma is a decorated veteran of the wars in Afghanistan and Iraq. He was involved in the operation that tracked down Saddam Hussein and wrote a book about it, We Got Him! A Memoir of the Hunt and Capture of Saddam Hussein. After 21 years of service he retired from the Army as a lieutenant colonel and then served the Oklahoma state senate before being elected to United States House of Representatives. He’s also the founder and owner of a rifle manufacturing company.

On Thursday, November 19, Congressman Russell addressed the U.S. House and among other things explained what fundamental American values imply about how we should deal with the refugee crisis. The excerpt below runs under five minutes:


Link: https://youtu.be/UEt_TAj8t3E

His full prepared text can be read at this link. Below is the part covered in the video, followed by a couple of additional paragraphs I wish had been included in the video as well:

While I have tried to focus my comments on actions we should take to eliminate ISIS, one action we should not take is to become them. America is a lamp that lightens the horizon of civilized and free mankind. The Statue of Liberty cannot have a stiff arm. Her arm must continue to keep the torch burning brightly. If we use our passions, anger and fear were to snuff out her flame by xenophobic and knee-jerk policy, the enemy wins. Period.

Here are some Syrian refugee facts you may not know. Despite a long established, multi-layered system to vett and bring refugees into the United States; despite biometric and biographic screening; despite intelligence vetting with the National Counter-Terrorism Center, The FBIs Terrorist Screening Center and the Departments of State, Defense and Homeland Security; added to the fact that Syrian refugees receive additional screening due to national security concerns and most of them are women and children; coupled with the fact that only a total of 1900 have entered the country in the last four years, Americans across the country are calling on Lady Liberty to drop her torch and give the stiff arm with perhaps another gesture.

I want you to listen carefully to these statements by members of Congress in response to a refugee bill. Not illegals. Not permanent residents—but refugees. People fleeing for their lives. Listen to these statements.

[Fighting immigration is] “the best vote-getting argument…The politician can beat his breast and proclaim his loyalty to America.” “He can tell the unemployed man that he is out of work because some alien has a job.”

Here’s another one. [Congress must] “protect the youth of America from this foreign invasion.”

And how about this one, “American Children Have First Claim to America’s Charity”

There are many more but these quotes were from 1939. The refugee bill was not for Muslim and Christian Syrians or Iraqi Muslims, Christians and Yizidis. It was for German Jews. While it was true that Germany was a threat, the refugees were not—they were 20,000 children. Not only did that bill of 1939 not pass, but that Congress, with the same speech and rhetoric I am hearing in recent days in this august chamber, passed hurdle after hurdle to make it more difficult for those refugees to enter. They were unfortunately successful.

Mr. Speaker, America protects her liberty and defends her shores not by punishing those who would be free. She does it by guarding liberty with her life. Americans need to sacrifice and wake up. We must not become them. They win if we give up who we are and even more so without a fight.

We guard our way of life by vigilance. We must be watchful. We have to have each others back and be alert to dangers around us. We must speak up when we see something unusual. By maintaining who we are amidst the threat, amidst the hatred, amidst the trials, we win. Patrick Henry did not say give me Safety or give me Death! He said Give me Liberty.

The Congress added a remark not in his text to the effect that Patrick Henry was expressing a willingness to risk his life for Liberty. The video clip above ends at that point, but the following paragraphs are very much worth reading:

We have defended our way of life for 240 years. Now we as Americans must defend it again. We must defend it when the critic sitting on the couch in his underwear eating his bag of cheese puffs is pecking out hatred and vitriol. We must defend it and have courage when voters are caught up with sincere passion demanding security that might kill our liberty. We must defend it with our warriors who have worked hard to keep the fight off our shores by being vigilant and aware at home and while looking after their families. We will always have threats. But liberty, when lost, takes generations, if ever, to regain.

I am asking all Americans to pray for our President. How much time have we spent on our knees at home for our leaders? How much counsel have we sought from the Almighty? It is God who has given us the spark of freedom. It is He we must return to. He will take us and guide us in times of crisis if we only ask him and humble ourselves and seek His face as a nation.

Mr. Speaker, we would not even have a nation without the aid of France. Lady Liberty would not stand on our shores without the generosity of France. And now, as civilization faces peril and trial, we must stand the test shoulder to shoulder with France. This Congress. Our people. Our way of life.



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In defense of computer generated effects

Just recently a friend of mine complained that overuse of computer-generated visual effects have ruined movies. Here’s an interesting response to that:


Link: https://youtu.be/bL6hp8BKB24

In brief, the problem isn’t the effects, it’s the writing. Meanwhile, today’s digital effects are often so good and so pervasive in films of all sorts that much of the time they pass completely unnoticed.

Incidentally, while the video above doesn’t mention it, computer-generated imagery has been used to convert near nudity to full nudity in a few films, such as 50 Shades of Grey. And that reminds me of a discussion that came up on a filmmaking mailing list I help moderate. One member of the group was astonished that a former Saved by the Bell actress had appeared fully and frontally in the film Showgirls. He wondered if perhaps she had not been totally nude but had been made to appear that way by means of visual effects. More specifically, he asked, was it possible that her naughty bits had been, and I quote, “digitally manipulated.” This produced an outpouring of etymology such as the world had never known.



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What to call ISIL/ISIS/Daesh

A terrorist group that controls a (now reduced) amount of territory in parts of Iraq and Syria proclaims itself a “caliphate” and an “Islamic state,” designations widely rejected by Muslim scholars and the vast majority of practicing Muslims.

Western media sometimes refer to the group as “the Islamic State” (or “IS”), which is what it would like to be called, since it aspires to rule the whole world and not just the small and shrinking piece of territory that it currently controls. More commonly it’s called “ISIS,” for “the Islamic State and Iraq and Syria,” or “ISIL,” for “the Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant,” the latter closer to an English translation of its original name.

But there’s a lot to be said for calling it “Daesh,” an Arabic acronym pronounced something between “Dah-esh” and “Dash,” that’s essentially equivalent to ISIL but has a significant advantage: Daesh itself reportedly hates the name, because in the Arab world its opponents have turned it into a sneer, as explained in the video below.


Link: https://youtu.be/WZjSyELpoAI

Of the other options, I personally prefer “ISIL” to “ISIS” because the latter is the name of an Egyptian goddess widely worshipped in the ancient world including the Roman Empire, and she doesn’t deserve association with the group.



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Why the gold standard is a really bad idea

The U.S. dollar is “fiat money,” meaning money that’s just declared into existence, in the dollar’s case by the U.S. Federal Reserve. (“Fiat” is Latin for “let there be” or “let there be made” or “let there be done” as in the biblical “Fiat lux” — “Let there be light.”) It has value only because people think it has value and are willing to exchange things for it. The Treasury will no longer give you a fixed amount of gold or silver in exchange for paper currency as it used to promise to do. In fact, the vast majority of money today exists in the form of accounting entries, mainly in electronic files, not paper money, and often not even printed out on paper documents except in occasional statements.

The idea of fiat money bothers some people, who call for a return to the gold standard, contending it would stabilize the number of dollars in circulation and hence their value. Except it wouldn’t, as this graph makes obvious:

Chart of the widely fluctuation price of gold

This is the free-market price of gold in dollars per troy ounce from the start of 2011 through the present. To be fair I should point out that the vertical axis doesn’t start at zero, which exaggerates the apparent volatility. But the free-market value of gold is still plenty dang volatile, losing almost half its effective purchasing power between its peak in the latter part of 2011 and today. So much for the notion that gold has a stable inherent worth. Fiat dollars are in practice far more stable than gold. It would take nearly twice as much gold to buy a car or a case of soda as it did four years ago, but the price in dollars has changed only slightly.

I’ve heard people respond to this by pointing out that the price of gold was much more stable when the gold standard was still in use. But that doesn’t show a stable inherent value of gold any more than the fixed price of a metric ton of concrete, as decreed by a Soviet bureaucrat in the Communist era, proved that concrete has stable inherent value. A return to the gold standard wouldn’t stabilize the value of a dollar; the dollar would end up stabilizing the price of gold.

Moreover, a growing economy needs a money supply that grows along with it, and the growth in the gold supply is constrained by how fast it can be mined. (You may recall that in his Autobiography, Benjamin Franklin mentions an economic crisis brought on by a money shortage and the use of paper currency to relieve it.) In fact, an economy would likely collapse into deflation if the money in circulation (in whatever form) didn’t grow faster than the supposed underlying reserve of gold and silver. Fortunately the existence of banking effectively expands the money supply by lending money that ends up being deposited into the same or another bank, becoming available to be re-lent and re-deposited. Even when a gold standard is theoretically in place, as long as there is banking, relatively little money in circulation is in the form of paper or coins. Even so, when paper currency is backed by gold or silver, the treasury’s relatively fixed stock of gold or silver can interfere with a central bank’s efforts to set monetary policy, and we know from hard experience that such constraints create more problems than they solve. That’s why all major economies have abandoned the gold standard. (All minor ones too, probably, though I haven’t checked exhaustively.)

It’s true, of course, that an irresponsible government can go wild generating huge quantities of fiat money and provoking hyperinflation, as in Weimar Germany in the early 1920s and in Zimbabwe more recently. But in practice this is rare, because hyperinflation is devastating to the wealthy, and wealthy people, as you may have heard, tend to have some influence.

All this is common knowledge in public policy circles, so it’s a little disturbing that during a recent Republican presidential candidates’ debate, Texas Senator Ted Cruz called for a return to the gold standard and none of the other candidates pointed out why this is a bad idea. Fortunately others did later, including moderate conservative writer Megan McArdle (see also this earlier piece from her), Jeff Spros, Matt O’Brien, and others.

[Updated 2015 November 30, December 1 and 19, and 2017 April 25 in my usual optimistic effort to make some clumsy wording less opaque, and 2016 February 25 to mention the possibility and rarity of hyperinflation.]



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How much of a threat are Syrian refugees?

Neighboring countries have taken in a few million refugees from the Syrian civil war. Another several hundred thousand have fled into Europe. Canada proposes to take in 25,000, and President Obama is planning to allow 10,000 more into the United States over the next year. So far, however, the U.S. has let in fewer than 2000.

Some Americans are understandably worried that Syrian refugees might include terrorists affiliated with the self-declared “Islamic State” (ISIL), and politicians and pundits have been trying to take advantage of those fears for reasons of politics and ratings. These concerns have taken off following the terrorist attacks in France and some evidence that one of the murderers might have come from Syria (all the rest were European).

On the other hand, some have suggested that the Syrian passport found at the site of one of the attacks is a plant. One of ISIL’s known strategic goals is to turn the West against Syrian refugees, as explained by Adam Taylor in this article from The Washington Post.

In any case, the United States already has in place what is very likely the strongest security screening in the world for refugees, a process that typically takes 18 months to two years to complete. This is outlined in Taylor’s piece and in this one, and yet another describes what’s involved from the perspective of one family, who made it through more quickly than average, in about a year.

Also worth a look is this mid-October essay from The Economist, a magazine usually considered moderate to conservative in its politics, which laments how few refugees are being taken in by the U.S. in comparison with other countries.

There’s a description of the vetting process in this a five-minute interview shown on MSNBC November 16.

If you don’t like MSNBC, here’s Fox News anchor Shep Smith very succinctly arguing that the United States should been guided more by its principles than by un-American fright:

In a speech November 16 in Alabama, former National Security Advisor and Secretary of State Condoleeza Rice similarly said that while she understood why people were nervous, she hoped the U.S. can remain “open and welcoming” to refugees. “What the United States has done is to be open to people who are fleeing tyranny, who are fleeing danger, but we have done it in a very careful way that has worked for us.” She noted that during her service as Secretary of State, when security concerns were every bit as high as they are today, the U.S. admitted around 67,000 refugees from various countries without problem.

As mentioned in the first paragraph above, vastly larger number of refugees have fled to Europe and to Syria’s immediate neighbors. For more on that, see these earlier posts, all of which include informative short videos on the subject:

Finally, we’ve seen reluctance to admit refugees before. In 1939, the merchant ship SS St Louis attempted to bring 900-some refugees, almost all of them German Jews, to Cuba. When Cuba would allow only a handful into the country, the ship tried to come to the U.S. but was denied permission. There was at the time widespread public opposition to relaxing immigration quotas, and Republican isolationists had made gains in the 1948 election. The politically environment probably discouraged FDR from admitting refugees by executive order.

Unable to find a country that would accept them, the refugees were forced to return to Europe. Some were admitted to Britain and all but one survived the war. Of the remainder, about half perished in the Holocaust. The SS St Louis passengers were a small fraction of the refugees unable to escape because no country would take them, but it was a particularly dramatic example. The United State Holocaust Memorial Museum has an article about it here.



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Record drought implicated in Syrian civil war

A recent paper published in Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences argues that a record drought in 2007 through 2010, combined with poor agricultural practices and environmental problems, led to “widespread crop failure and a mass migration of farming families to urban centers” at the same time, refugees from the war in Iraq were flooding into Syria as well.

This combination of events destabilized the country and, combined with the brutality of the Assad government, contributed to launching to devastating Syrian civil war in 2011.

The researchers attribute the existence of the drought to natural climate variations, but also cite evidence that it’s unlikely that the drought would have been as severe had it not been for for the contributing factor of human-caused global warming.

Many articles on climate change talk about longer-term consequences, but the most immediate bad effects are damage to agriculture and the economy, leading to masses of human beings fleeing unsustainable regions of the war and provoking all manner of problems including wars.

A brief abstract and a link to the full article can be found on the journal’s websitehere. For a nontechnical discussion see this National Geographic article. You might also be interested in another National Geographic piece from mid-2013 that examines other forecasts of violence resulting from global warming.

Hank Green’s five-minute video overview of the Syrian Civil War can be found in this earlier post, and you might also want to read The Atlantic Monthly‘s background article.



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