Saving money while making people healthier

We’ve all heard that eating better and exercising more is good for health. The hard part is getting people to do it (and that certainly includes me).

A couple of doctors have been doing research on that, and the results deserve more attention. Basically, people were given the opportunity of using gyms and getting basic nutrition counseling for free. Those who participated showed significant improvements, even more so if they were over 60.

Moreover, since the people in question stayed healthier, their health costs were lower. Insurers, including Medicare, can save money — potentially a lot of money — by paying for these programs.

The following succinct video by Dr Aaron Carroll explains the research and the results and laments it isn’t better known. One thing he doesn’t mention is that people in some Medicare-related programs now get free gym memberships as part of their coverage. For example, at least one Medicare Advantage policy offered in my area includes free use of thousands of gyms all over the United States. The gym gets paid for each visit by a participant, so it’s in their interest to encourage people to use the facilities.


Link: https://youtu.be/mR77alFcekw



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25 Things you didn’t know about Ted Cruz

This is pretty hilarious. Following up on Us Magazine‘s feature on 25 things you didn’t know about Hillary Clinton, Bill Maher provides a preview of 25 things you didn’t know about Ted Cruz. This is of course an excerpt from Maher’s HBO show Real Time. Given that it’s Bill Maher, I shouldn’t have to warn you that the language isn’t completely safe for work.


Link: https://youtu.be/WsX9bG5f0F4



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Presidential candidates’ tax proposals

Brothers Hank and John Green talk succinctly and intelligently about the tax proposals of the remaining major-party presidential candidates. Follow the links below the videos to other information sources.

First Democrats Clinton and Sanders:


Link: https://youtu.be/Ml5RFrVzArk

Then Republicans Trump and Cruz:


Link: https://youtu.be/Jlr0taBZIlk

None of the proposals is perfect, but the Republican ones are surprisingly non-serious, promising tax cuts that would explode the federal budget deficit.

While most people seem not to realize it, in recent decades Republican presidencies have been associated with increasing deficits. The last two presidents to produce a budget surplus were Bill Clinton and Lyndon Johnson, the latter (as I’m fond of reminding people) at the height of the Vietnam War, the War on Poverty, and the Apollo program. Barack Obama inherited a terrible economy and a bad deficit and enlarged the deficit even more in a deal with Congress that cut taxes and increased infrastructure spending, which turned the economy around and likely prevented another Great Depression. Since then the deficit has been falling at a record rate, partly as a result of the improving economy and the rest from efforts by Obama and the Congress to reduce the deficit.

By the way, Clinton’s tax plan would establish a top marginal income tax rate of 43 percent on the portion of one’s income in excess of $5,000,000 per year. For comparison, the top marginal rate under Eisenhower was over 90 percent, and under most of the Reagan years it was 50 percent.



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NASCAR, and a reminder about what NC’s “bathroom” law really does

If you missed the news, even NASCAR has now come out against North Carolina’s controversial “bathroom” law, HB2. (See these reports from WRAL television, The News & Observer of Raleigh, and The Charlotte Observer.) Various businesses, sporting organizations, entertainers, and religious and secular human rights groups have called for the law’s repeal. But it seems unlikely that the legislature or governor will admit their mistake.

If you’ve been off-planet for a while, here’s a quick recap: Charlotte, the largest city in North Carolina, adopted a city ordinance that among other things explicitly allowed transexual persons to continue using the bathroom of their preference, just as they’ve been doing. This non-change provoked hysterical panic and fears of male pedophiles claiming to be transgender and going into women’s rooms to frighten or assault little girls and women.

The General Assembly reacted by holding a special session lasting just a few hours in order to pass a badly-thought-out bill (House Bill 2, or HB2) that prohibits North Carolina counties and cities from expanding civil rights to include sexual preference or transgender status. It also has the effect of blocking them from raising the local minimum wage (even if they have a much higher cost of living than the state average), and it prohibits people from suing in state court for workplace discrimination of any basis at all (race, sex, religion, etc.). Finally, it requires people using public restrooms in public buildings (such as schools and government offices) to use the restroom corresponding to the gender on their birth certificates as opposed to their actual sex and appearance. Some of these consequences were apparently not intended by the legislature but resulted from a hasty drafting of the statute.

Consider just the bathroom provisions alone:

As noted in this previous post, the law requires transgender men — men who generally look and dress like men and even grow beards — to use the women’s restroom if their birth certificate says they are female and the restroom in question is in a state or local government building. Thus the legislature requires the very thing it was in a panic to prevent. The law’s defenders respond that the law doesn’t actually have an enforcement mechanism (you’re not required to present a birth certificate to use a restroom), so it has no real effect. (Then why the frantic rush to pass it?) Also, the law’s defenders insist, persons born in North Carolina can often (provided they have the money for legal fees) change the gender on their birth certificates. They’re apparently not aware that people who were born in many other states, such as Tennessee, don’t have that option.

Furthermore, during all the many years prior to HB2, transgender persons were legally free to use the restroom of their choice — no law prevented it — and there were no resulting problems. Moreover, there are many places in the U.S. where state law or local ordinance granted the same explicit rights as the Charlotte ordinance, and again this has not been a problem. (Update 2016 May 9: On May 8, Fox New Sunday host Chris Wallace pointed this out to North Carolina Governor Pat McCrory, who admitted that it’s true. So Wallace asked him why he can’t just “let it go.” Governor, if even Fox News and NASCAR think you’ve gone to far into the crazy extremes of the right, you might want to rethink your position.)

In brief, the main purpose of the law was to prevent something that has not been happening, but is has the effect of legally obligating some men to use the women’s restroom. I suspect that in practice they will ignore this ridiculous requirement, and so apparently do some legislative leaders who voted for the law and still absurdly try to claim that it’s “common sense.”

Despite the law’s serious and obvious problems, the General Assembly (now back in session) is clearly not going to repeal the law, at least given what the GOP leadership says.

(Updated 2016 May 8 to clarify that the restroom provisions apply only in state and local government buildings.)



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Utah passes anti-naughtiness resolution

Back in 2009 Harvard Business School professor published an article in the Journal of Economic Perspectives (link to PDF) on the economics of on-line pornography. Probably its most reported observation was that by multiple measures, the conservative and heavily religious state of Utah led the U.S. in the concentration of paying subscribers to pornographic websites. (See Table 2 about 3/4 of the way through the article.)

Last week, Utah’s legislature unanimously passed, and its governor signed, a resolution condemning pornography as a “public health crisis.” (The text text can be found here.) The resolution does not call for censorship, only for “education, prevention, research, and [unspecified] policy change at the community and societal level.”

Reasonable people can have differing opinions on the subject, but at the level, some of what the resolution says strikes me as probably true and other parts as questionable. To be more specific:

WHEREAS, the average age of exposure to pornography is now 11 to 12 years of age;

I don’t doubt that children can now encounter pornography as young as 11 or 12, but it’s mathematically implausible that the average age of exposure would be quite that young. Given that the distribution is necessarily bounded below by zero, the median is likely lower than the arithmetic mean, so for this assertion to be true, most of the population would have to be exposed by 10 or younger. I doubt that. Parents may be lax in monitoring kids’ Internet usage, but that lax?

WHEREAS, exposure to pornography often serves as childrens’ [sic] and youths’ sex education and shapes their sexual templates;

This may, alas, be true. Some kids likely do learn from porn because they’re not being otherwise educated on the subject, especially in states that emphasize “abstinence only” sex education (which incidentally tend to have higher rates of teen pregnancy). It’s unfortunate that the same Utah legislature just two months ago rejected a bill to improve sex education in the state. (The legislators also need some training in the use of apostrophes, but that’s a separate matter.)

WHEREAS, because pornography treats women as objects and commodities for the viewer’s use, it teaches girls they are to be used and teaches boys to be users;

And this is also at least partly true, at least judging by some of the things I see in my spam folder promoting porn websites, with women referred to by obscene terms or called “bitches.” We hear the same in some genres of music, in movies, and even from the mouths of some politicians. I mention that not to defend porn but to condemn other manifestations of misogyny.

But I don’t think it’s accurate to imply that this is a fair characterization of erotica in general. From what I’ve seen of it (and being a guy with an Internet connection, I admit I’ve seen some), it mainly depicts people mutually and enthusiastically enjoying sex. There’s no suggestion that either gender is being “used” more than the other.

WHEREAS, pornography normalizes violence and abuse of women and children;

WHEREAS, pornography treats women and children as objects and often depicts rape and abuse as if they are [sic] harmless;

WHEREAS, pornography equates violence towards women and children with sex and pain with pleasure, which increases the demand for sex trafficking, prostitution, child sexual abuse images, and child pornography;

Again, I can’t claim to be a porn expert, but this seems pretty misleading. Again, most of it I’ve come across depicts people (or sometimes a woman on her own) having a really good time, with no violence or pain and certainly no children. Child porn apparently exists, but I’ve never run across it, and given the severity of punishments it’s not surprising that people trafficking in such things would keep them hidden as much as they can.

Rather than rely only on my vague impressions, I checked a visit to a website that’s supposed to be one of the largest of its type (it’s called “Clips for Sale” if you want to look it up), and I took a look at what it promotes as the most popular categories, best-selling clips, and so on. It actually appears that women mistreating men is more popular than the reverse, and neither is as popular as plain old depictions of sex.

(In passing, I’ll add that whoever teaches the legislature a remedial apostrophe course might try to introduce the more advanced students to the subjunctive mood, so they would know to write, “as if they were harmless.”)

The resolution also suggests that “pornography is potentially biologically addictive,” but by the next clause the “potential” addiction is assumed to be certain and to lead to “increasing themes of risky sexual behaviors, extreme degradation, violence, and child sexual abuse images and child pornography.” People who know more about this than I do (and, I suspect, the average Utah legislator), question this. See, for example, this article as well as this one, both by Samantha Allen, who has a PhD in Women’s, Gender, and Sexuality Studies from Emory University, and which reference research that calls into question the existence of any such “potential addiction” (which doesn’t seem to be recognized by the scientific or medical communities).

As for the imagined consequences, it’s hard to reconcile the supposed public health crisis with such things as the decline in teen pregnancies and rates of sexual violence against women. I should make it clear that I don’t mean to suggest that those things are no longer problems — they clearly are. It’s also true that some things (such as STD infection rates) are getting worse. I’m simply noting that the data don’t appear to support the idea that increased availability of pornography is creating a major new public health “crisis.”

For more about the Utah resolution, see this editorial from The Utah Standard newspaper.

See also this article from February by Martha Kempner, a writer with a master’s in human sexuality from NYU. The article’s summary reads, “The resolution introduced to declare pornography an epidemic is pretty toothless. But the resolution still carries harmful implications: It allows the moral musings of one misguided lawmaker, backed up by nothing more than pseudoscience, to be presented as fact in the legal code.”

(Updated 2016 April 26 to fix some wording, including a place where I said the opposite of what I meant. Why I can’t catch such things before they go out I’ve no idea.)



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Game of Thrones meets SNL

In honor of Season 6 of HBO’s Game of Thrones, here’s George R R Martin’s alleged appearance on Saturday Night Live‘s “Weekend Update” from two years ago.


Link: https://youtu.be/D9fv74wt6Dw

(We’re still waiting, George.)

Meanwhile, in case you haven’t seen it, here’s the (second) trailer for Season 6. Note that it contains spoilers for those who have not yet seen earlier seasons.


Link: https://youtu.be/EI0ib1NErqg



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Sesame Street meets Game of Thrones

The long-running children’s series Sesame Street will now air episodes first on HBO and later on PBS. HBO is also home to Game of Thrones. Back in December Jimmy Kimmel aired a brief mashup of the two, inserting Game of Thrones dialog into a scene from Sesame Street, more or less in the spirit of the Friends / Game of Thrones mashup I referenced in this post a few days ago.


Link: https://youtu.be/dvBW4cK5Zgg

But it turns out that Sesame Street itself had already created a funnier Game of Thrones parody last April:


Link: https://youtu.be/dhWUFXvaZjo

(Thanks, by the way, to the creators these clips for permitting them to be embedded here.)



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Is violent crime rising again? (Probably not)

In the summer of last year some news media took note of a sharp increase in murders in some major cities, such as Baltimore and Houston, since the start of the year, and they suggested crime was on the rise again in America after a a quarter-century of decline. Some were more cautious, pointing out that murder rates were actually down in other large cities, such as Dallas and Los Angeles. For balanced coverage see this June article from CNN and this September one from The Washington Post.

It’s worth noting that comprehensive FBI statistics were not yet available at that point. In fact, the full report on 2015 crime rates is not due out for months. In January of this year, however, the FBI released a preliminary analysis covering the first half of 2015. In particular, take a look at these numbers from Table 3, showing the percentage increase or decrease for crime rates of various categories for the first half of the year relative to the first half of the previous year:

Year (Jan-Jun) Violent crime Murder Property crime
2012 +1.9 -1.7 +1.5
2013 -5.4 -6.9 -5.4
2014 -4.6 -6.0 -7.5
2015 +1.7 +6.2 -4.2

By “crime rates” I mean the number of crimes per 100,000 persons, not the total number of crimes.)

The murder rate in January-June of 2015 was 6.2 percent higher than in the same period in 2014, but it was still below the rate in January-June 2013. (This is more obvious if you work out the rates all relative to 2011 rather than to the previous year: It was down by 1.7 percent from 2011 in 2012, by 8.5 percent in 2013, by 14.0 percent in 2014, and by 8.6 in 2015.)

The violent crime rate increase was greater for the first half of 2012 than for the first half of 2015, but anyone in 2012 who looked at that increase and expected it to continue was probably surprised by the drops the next two years. (Also notice that property crimes, which had gone up along with violent crimes in 2012, fell in all three subsequent years, including 2015.)

We of course don’t know what’s going to happen next year. (We’re not even sure yet about the last half of 2015.) The point is that there’s no sound reason to assume with any confidence that things are going to get worse, and long-term trends give us reason to think the crime rates are more likely fall or stay the same for the near future than they are to rise.

Finalliy, we shouldn’t forget that today’s violent crime and murder rates are significantly below what they were in the 1970s, let alone at their peak in 1991. In fact, the murder rates in 2013 and 2014 were the lowest since at least 1960. This surprises a lot of people, as John Green notes in this Vlog Brothers post from late November:


Link: https://youtu.be/0VIaL7lbgv4

(Revised 2016 April 23 to correct the 2012 property crime figure.)



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