How big a threat is terrorism?

The chief aim of terrorism, as its name implies, is to instill fear, and a lot of us have inadvertently aided the bad guys by exaggerating the threat.

Of course, this isn’t to say that terrorism is nothing to worry about. We all remember September 11, 2001, when airliners hijacked by terrorists killed several thousand innocent people in the United States. That was by far the single worst terrorist strike in world history. In the many years since then, fewer than 200 persons total have been killed by terrorists in the United States. For comparison, the United States has recently averaged around 16,000 non-terrorist-related murders every year (see e.g. the latest FBI crime statistics), which is itself smaller than the annual average number who die from influenza or traffic accidents.

Many of us tend to think of terrorists as foreign Muslim extremists, but most of those attacking the U.S. have been citizens or legal residents typically acting on their own or in small groups, and many have not been Muslim. The second-worst terrorist attack in U.S. history, 1995’s Oklahoma City bombing, was perpetrated by far-right anti-government fanatics of no particular religious affiliation. The Atlanta Olympic Park bomber (who had previously exploded bombs at women’s health clinics and a night club popular with lesbians), identified himself as a Christian and claimed to be motivated by a hatred of socialism and abortion. The 2015 mass murder at the Emmanuel AME Church in Charleston SC was carried out by an emotionally troubled young man reportedly radicalized by white supremacist websites. There have of course been Muslim terrorists as well, such as the person who shot over a hundred people, 49 fatally, at the Pulse gay nightclub in Orlando last June, the single most deadly terrorist attack in the United States since 9-11.

Of course, there are Muslim extremist groups who embrace terrorism as a tactic and have killed large numbers of innocent people especially in the Middle East and parts of Africa. In fact, as M. Steven Fish wrote in his 2011 book from Oxford University Press, the majority of terrorist attacks world-wide in recent years have been carried out by Islamic terrorists. But for Americans and Europeans, he wrote in a more recent article, the risk of being killed by a terrorist in a given year is only about 1 in 3.5 million, and in the United States and Europe Muslim terrorists account for less than half th deaths. In fact, from 2002 on, Americans have faced a greater risk of being killed by their own furniture or television falling on them than of being killed by a terrorist of any description.

Nor, according to Fish, are Muslim societies in general particularly violence-prone.

Homicide rates in Muslim-majority countries average about two murders per annum per 100,000 people. In non-Muslim countries, the average rate is about 8 per 100,000. Murder rates fluctuate from year to year, but they are consistently low in Muslim societies. The homicide rate in Indonesia, the world’s largest Muslim country, is 1 per 100,000 — one-fifth the rate of the world’s largest Christian country, the United States. Christian countries live with murder rates that are unknown in the Muslim world. Brazilians and Mexicans are used to murder rates in the 15-25 range; the rate in Venezuela tops 50. Turks, Egyptians, Iranians, and Malaysians live with rates in the 2-4 range.

It’s also important to recognize that mainstream Muslims condemn terrorism. See this long list of anti-terrorism statements from Muslim leaders compiled by Charles Kurzman, a professor at the University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill (which last night won the NCAA men’s basketball tournament, I believe I heard somewhere, but that’s another subject).

Kurtzman has extensively studied Islam and Arab culture and has very interesting things to say about Islam and terrorism, for example in this recent article about his work originally from The Deseret News. Kurzman notes that in 2016, the percentage of people killed by Muslim terrorists in the U.S. was smaller than the percentage of Muslims killed in the U.S. for being Muslim. (Both percentages were microscopic.) Even in the Middle East, where terrorist attacks are much more common, terrorist leaders from Osama bin-Laden to Ayman al-Zawahiri have complained about how hard it is to find Muslims willing to join their movements.

A January 30 blog post by Nick Gillespie on the website of libertarian-conservative Reason magazine points out that no Americans — zero — have been killed by foreign born refugees in the United States since the Refugee Act of 1980. That’s partly because it’s so hard to into the country as a refugee. For the most part, the U.S. chooses which refugees to admit rather than refugees picking the U.S. Even the danger of terrorists coming to the U.S. on tourist visas, which are far easier to get, present a very small risk in realistic terms.



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The latest on North Carolina’s bathroom bill

On Thursday the North Carolina legislature finally repealed the state’s notorious “bathroom bill,” also known as HB2. It was unfortunately not a clean repeal, in that the new law reimposes some objectionable restrictions. But it does at least do away with HB2 and its most ridiculous provisions.

The repeal law (link to PDF) is less than a page long and does three things:

  • Section 1 repeals HB2 and a separate related law (see below for details).
  • Section 2 prohibits localities and state agencies from imposing their own bathroom access rules.
  • Sections 3 and 4 prohibit local ordinances against discrimination in public accommodations and private-sector employment until 2020.

Some supporters and opponents of the law have argued that the repeal accomplished nothing, but as discussed below this is not quite correct. Some background:

Last year the state’s largest city, Charlotte, passed an ordinance that would among other things have allowed transgender persons to use whichever restroom, men’s or women’s, they found most comfortable. Some people were afraid that this would license male sexual predators to invade women’s restrooms and dressing rooms. In reality, existing laws against sexual assault, “peeping toms,” and the like would not have been affected by the ordinance, and laws and ordinances effectively identical to Charlotte’s exist in many places, such as Myrtle Beach, South Carolina, without leading to the scenarios envisioned opponents of Charlotte’s ordinance.

Despite that, the highly gerrymandered, and overwhelmingly Republican, state legislature went into panic mode and held a 12-hour emergency special session devoted to the supposed crisis, during which, without public hearings or time to consider the matter rationally, it passed a badly drafted House Bill 2 (HB2), which was that same evening signed into law by Republican Governor Pat McCrory. At that point its formal designation became Session Law 2016-3 (link).

Most notoriously, HB2 decreed that anyone using a multiple-occupancy restroom, shower facility, or dressing room in a state or local government building (including a public school) use one corresponding to the gender on his or her birth certificate. Private businesses or organizations were authorized to set their own policies. As explained in this previous post and this one, the sloppy wording of HB2 actually defeated the original purpose.

HB2 also forbade any local nondiscrimination ordinances (which among other things eliminated a number of local protections for veterans). In addition, it was worded in a way to end the right of individuals to sue in state courts for illegal discrimination because of race, religion, national origin, etc. (Note that there is no North Carolina or federal law prohibiting discrimination on the basis of sexual orientation or the like; HB2 did not change that either way.)

The last provision was opposed by the Republican governor and was repealed last year by a bill known as HB169 (officially Session Law 2016-99; see this link). Unfortunately the repeal reduced the time to file such lawsuits.

As a practical matter, the bathroom provisions of HB2 proved unenforceable. Law enforcement agencies pointed out that they could not be expected to stand guard outside of restrooms demanding to see birth certificates, and in any case the law imposed no penalties for violators. At most it might have been possible to charge someone with trespassing. (See e.g. this report from NPR on the practical difficulties of enforcing this misconceived provision.) Moreover, a preliminary federal injunction (PDF) suggested that with respect to educational institutions the law was likely in violation of Title IX given precedents in the governing Fourth Circuit.

There was widespread opposition to HB2 both within the state and nationally. Religious and secular human rights organizations called for the law’s repeal. Popular entertainers canceled performances or donated ticket proceeds to LGBTQ rights organizations. Multiple businesses suspended or canceled plans to expand in the state, and various sports organizations (including NASCAR) strongly opposed the law and in several cases moved major events such as tournaments out of the state. Even Chris Wallace, in an interview with Gov. McCrory on Fox News, pointed out that the law was supposed to address a problem that doesn’t exist in reality. See this previous post for more on conservative opposition to HB2.

Public sentiment grew increasingly negative, and Gov. McCrory was the only governor seeking reelection in 2016 to be turned out of office, which polls suggest was largely a consequence of his support for HB2.

The immediate impetus for the repeal was an ultimatum from the National Collegiate Athletic Association (NCAA), which threatened to pull major games from the state for years go come. The repeal encompasses the entirety of HB2 and also repeals the separate law imposing tighter limits on filing private lawsuits against employment discrimination. Unfortunately, as noted above, Section 2 of the repeal law blocks ordinances like Charlotte’s. But what seems less noticed is that (whether the legislature intended it or not) the wording of that section also appears to forestall local attempts to impose an HB2-like bathroom requirement on transgender persons and hence may actually strengthen transgender rights. The general restriction on local antidiscrimination laws in Section 3 is obnoxious, but Section 4 terminates that provision in 2020. Incidentally, only two other states attempt to forbid local civil rights ordinances: Tennessee and Arkansas. (See this article for more.)

In summary, the current situation is far from ideal, but it is less awful than some have portrayed. Furthermore, the experience shows that public opinion can respond to information campaigns and that even North Carolina’s awful legislature responds to pressure. If that pressure is maintained, and especially if responsible voters throw the rascals out, matters can be further improved.

For other posts on this blog referencing HB2, see this link.



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Review: The Island at the Top of the World (1974 movie)

The film begins with David Hartman, playing an expert on Nordic history and archaeology, summoned to the home of a wealthy British industrialist (Donald Sinden). It seems Sinden’s estranged son had gone missing in the Arctic but some evidence has emerged of where he might be. Sinden is mounting a rescue expedition by airship, and it has belatedly occurred to him that having an expert on Scandinavia along would be a help.

Hartman agrees to join the crew, and in very little screen time they’re airborne in a dirigible. When Sinden’s impatience leads to the loss of a propeller, he insists there’s no time to land and effect repairs and volunteers to replace it in flight himself. But the French inventor and captain of the airship won’t allow it. “Only a fool would attempt such at thing!” he declares. “I will do it myself!”

Not long thereafter they reach a village in northern Greenland where they find a local (Mako, who years later played a wizard in Conan the Barbarian) who had worked as a guide for Sinden’s son.

Together Mako and the son had discovered an uncharted island in the far north that was home to an isolated colony of Vikings enjoying a very pleasant climate thanks to abundant hot springs. Sinden tries to persuade Mako to join the expedition to help them find that island, and when Mako refuses Sinden desperately resorts to kidnapping, though he later regrets his dishonorable behavior.

The plot moves right along with a decent variety of adventure in interesting settings. The Vikings they encounter speak Old Norse and Hartman proves himself useful by translating. (Actually, while they’re supposed to be speaking old Norse, the actors, from a variety of Scandinavian countries, just speak their various native languages.) That alone puts the film ahead of other adventures in which everybody for some reason speaks English.

On the other hand, the characters aren’t especially likable or well-realized. Sinden is mainly an arrogant pain in the ass, Hartman largely passive, and most of the rest cardboard with about one character trait apiece. The French airship captain and Mako are probably the most interesting people around, but they’re both stereotypes at the core. The lack of an actual hero may have contributed to the disappointing box office for a film that was very expensive to make. I should emphasize that despite those flaws it’s by no means awful, and at the age of 12 I might have really liked it.

The script was by John Whedon (grandfather of the better-known Joss Whedon), based on a 1961 novel, The Lost Ones, by Ian Cameron (pseudonym of James Vance Marshall).

David Hartman was the best-known actor in it from his work on television. In late 1975, about a year after this film’s release, he left acting to become a very popular co-host of Good Morning America, ABC’s answer to NBC’s Today Show. More recently he has done occasional documentaries broadcast on The Discovery Channel and PBS. He lives here in Durham, and a few years ago I nearly rented an office suite across the hall from David Hartman Productions, but ended up not taking it because it was farther than I wanted from my house. I never actually met him.


Link: https://youtu.be/IjHnvAHr3is



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Trump University

Apologies for bringing this up again, but I wanted to make sure I put this here for reference.

Maybe I’m naïve, but I think that if more people had been aware of Trump’s “University” Trump would never have won the Republican nomination, let alone been elected. That’s because Trump University was a scam that cheated people, including a lot of old people, out of their money, taking not just their savings but convincing them to go into debt.

They were told that in return for their money they’d learn Donald Trump’s secrets for getting rich in real estate, as taught by what Donald Trump himself falsely claimed were experts he had selected himself. In fact, Trump never even met most of the instructors, many of who had no background in real estate, and what was taught that was factually accurate could have been read in a few library books for free.

John Oliver’s excellent piece on Trump University from late November is more enraging than funny, though it is funny (and in terms of language not safe for work). It starts, incidentally, by citing a USA Today report that Trump’s various businesses have collectively been involved in at least 3,500 lawsuits over three decades. (Businesses do sue and get sued a lot, but egad. And in fact, USA’s estimate of the total number of lawsuits now exceeds 4000, as documented here and here.)


Link: https://youtu.be/cBUeipXFisQ

Just before the inauguration Trump three settled lawsuits over Trump University by paying $25 million. (See CNN and Politico for details.) Of course, Trump still claims Trump University was great and the suits were bogus, because Trump pretty much never admits anything.

I wrote about this back in February of 2016, both in passing here and in more detail here.

I mentioned it in June as well, bringing up Josh Marshall’s point that Trump’s ventures into such penny-ante things as Trump University and Trump Steaks seem strange for someone who claims to be so rich and who clearly cares about the value of his brand. Why diminish it if he doesn’t need the money?



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