D Gary Grady

Trump administration destabilizing health insurance markets possibly by accident

The Los Angeles Times reported Thursday that the Trump administration may be (intentionally or not) destabilizing the individual health insurance marketplace. That’s based on complaints from the companies and from state regulators of both parties. “The growing frustration with the Trump administration’s management — reflected in letters to state regulators and in interviews with more than two dozen senior industry and government officials nationwide — undercuts a key White House claim that Obamacare insurance marketplaces are collapsing on their own. Instead, according to many officials, it is the Trump administration that is driving much of the current instability by refusing to commit to steps to keep markets running, such as funding aid for low-income consumers or enforcing penalties for people who go without insurance.”

Kevin Drum has some excellent (and rather pissed-off) commentary on that LA Times article here.

More negative polling news for Trump

Meanwhile, as previously noted, a recent Public Policy Polling survey found that nearly 2/3 of U.S. voters favor keeping and fixing Obamacare rather than repealing and replacing it. In keeping with other parts of PPP’s survey, the latest poll from Monmouth University finds President Trump’s job approval rating at 39-53 approve-disapprove, down from 43-46 two months before. Among residents of “swing counties,” those where Trump and Clinton were within single digits of each other, Trump’s approval rating plummeted to 34-54 last week from 41-46 in March. Meanwhile, 73 percent of those surveyed want the FBI’s investigation into Russian meddling in the election to continue.

Trump expected to name non-scientist to top USDA science post

According to a May 12 article at ProPublica, President Trump’s likely pick for undersecretary of agriculture for research, education and economics is likely to be Sam Clovis. By statute the position is supposed to be filled “from among distinguished scientists with specialized or significant experience in agricultural research, education, and economics.” Clovis has a doctorate in public administration and is a professor of business and public policy at Morningside College, but he appears to have no credentials or publications as a scientist, doesn’t accept the scientific consensus on climate change, and is probably best known as a political activist and conservative talk radio host in Iowa.

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Trump administration likely to propose massive cuts to education funding

The Washington Post reports that the Trump administration plans drastic cuts to education in the next fiscal year. Among other things, college work-study funds would be cut in half, and a program that reduces college loan debt for new teachers would end entirely.

Conservative urges fellows not to assume news they don’t like is fake

Kevin D Williamson reminds fellow conservatives via National Review that the mainstream media, for all their flaws, aren’t “fake news.” He gives the example of Sean Hannity reading with approval an article from the mainstream Associated Press and then weirdly declaring, “The mainstream media won’t tell you about that!” Increasingly, he says, he encounters people who believe false Internet rumors (e.g., that Hillary Clinton was disbarred) and instead dismiss valid corrections as false. “The irony is that they have fallen for fake news, and retreat into ‘fake news!’ when their gullibility is shown.”

Erick Erickson on why Trump’s White House loyalists talk to the press

Another conservative, blogger and radio host Erick Erickson, said Tuesday that he personally knows a White House staffer who has leaked to the press despite being a staunch Trump loyalist. The reason, according to Erickson, is that “the President will not take any internal criticism, no matter how politely it is given. He does not want advice, cannot be corrected, and is too insecure to see any constructive feedback as anything other than an attack.” But Trump does pay attention to the news, so leaking to the press is a way to get Trump to pay attention.

Erickson adds something particularly troubling: “I am told that what the President did is actually far worse than what is being reported. The President does not seem to realize or appreciate that his bragging can undermine relationships with our allies and with human intelligence sources. He also does not seem to appreciate that his loose lips can get valuable assets in the field killed.”

Early warnings of Trump admin’s carelessness with classified information

There are signs the problem isn’t just with President Trump. Josh Marshall of Talking Points Memo recently quoted a January article in the Israeli newspaper Yedioth Ahronoth saying that American intelligence officers had warned their Israeli colleagues to be cautious about revealing sensitive sources to the new administration for fear it would reach Iran via Russia. More recently the Associated Press reported on breaches of security protocol by Trump’s team during the transition period. On the snark front, The Guardian quoted a tweet, from Jeb Bush campaign strategist (and frequent Trump critic) David Kochel: “John McCain probably revealed less to the KGB in 5+ years of torture at the Hanoi Hilton than Trump did in 5 minutes in the Oval.”

Kevin Drum disputes NYT on rising household debt

Yesterday The New York Times reported that “Americans have now borrowed more money than they had at the height of the credit bubble in 2008, just as the global financial system began to collapse.” But Kevin Drum responded that this number is misleading in that it overlooks inflation, population growth, the larger economy, and lower interest rates. A better measure of household debt load is the percentage of disposable income going to loan repayment. That, it turns out, has been around 10 percent for the past five years, the lowest level in decades. I’d add that interest rates are rising so household debt bears watching, but Drum’s clearly right that total debt is in itself a misleading statistic.

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According to an article by Laura Litvan published at Bloomberg Politics Tuesday, Senate majority leader Mitch McConnell is not in favor of tax reform that brings in less overall revenue. That is, any tax cuts would have to be offset by tax increases. A cut in marginal income tax rates, for example, would need to be offset by canceled tax credits or deductions, or else by a new or higher tax on something else, such as perhaps a “border adjustment tax” that would raise the price of imported goods. This puts McConnell at odds with many colleagues and with a large number of House Republicans.

In recent decades Republican tax cuts have let to lower revenues and a bigger deficit. When President Bill Clinton left office the federal government was running a large surplus and paying down the national debt so fast that had it continued, the debt would have been gone entirely in 2010. But two rounds of tax cuts under George W Bush, combined with wars, the passing of Medicare Part D, and other things, led to massive deficits. (In fairness to Bush, he was reportedly hesitant about the second round of tax cuts, but Vice President Dick Cheney persuaded him to go along with the idea.)

By no means all Republicans agree with McConnell. See this previous post from January.

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On Tuesday Raleigh-based Public Policy Polling released results of a survey conducted May 12-14 (summarized here, with a PDF of the details here). This was after President Trump fired FBI Director Comey but before we learned that Trump gave highly classified information to the Russians and reportedly pressured Comey to drop the Flynn investigation. Some notable findings:

American voters surveyed would prefer a Democratic-controlled Congress by 49 to 38 percent. Among voters who say they’re “very excited” about voting in 2018, the split is 61-34. However, next year’s election is a long way off, gerrymandering (combined with the concentration of Democrats in cities) gives the GOP an advantage in the House, and of the third of the senators up for election then, there happen to be a lot more Democrats running in states that went for Trump than Republicans in states that went for Clinton, so this is far from a guarantee that control of Congress will switch.

Only 29 percent of voters now favor repealing Obamacare. A large majority of 64 percent want to keep it with possible minor fixes.

By 62 to 38 percent those surveyed support for an independent investigation of Russia’s role in the 2016 election. A slight plurality, 43 to 38 percent, think Trump’s campaign was colluding with the Russians, but if collusion is proved, a solid 54 to 34 majority think he should resign.

There’s 51 to 41 percent agreement that Trump is a “liar,” and a slightly larger 55 percent consider him dishonest versus just 38 percent who disagree.

By 62 to 29 percent they want Trump to release his tax returns, and a 61-28 majority favor making it a legal requirement for presidential candidates.

Even before news of the past few days support for Trump’s impeachment was at 48-41 (favor-oppose), and only 43 percent of voters thought it likely that he would serve a full term.

By 49 to 41 percent, voters wish Hillary Clinton was president, and by 55 to 39 they wish President Obama was still in office. (Seth Meyers said one of those who didn’t was Barack Obama.)

The next presidential election is a long way off, but voters would prefer every hypothetical candidate over Trump by at least 5 percentage points: Joe Biden (54-40), Bernie Sanders (52-39), Elizabeth Warren (49-39), Al Franken (46-38), Cory Booker (46-39), and even Dwayne “The Rock” Johnson (42-37).

Remember, these results were from before Trump was reported to have committed obstruction of justice by trying to get Comey to drop the Flynn investigation, and before he was reported to have passed on top-secret intelligence to the Russians without first consulting with U.S. intelligence agencies about the potential harm of doing so (which is apparently pretty serious).

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