How American scientists and non-scientists see things

A poll released January 29 by the Pew Research Center (link) points out interesting differences and similarities between scientists and the general public in the U.S. on a variety of subjects of broad interest.

Scientists polled were selected from the membership of the American Association for the Advancement of Science (AAAS), the second-largest science organization in the world. More people belong to the American Chemical Society, but they are mainly chemists and chemical engineers, while the membership of AAAS includes scientist from all fields as well as a few non-scientists with an interest in science (a category that includes me; I’ve been a member of AAAS since 1979 but had nothing to do with the poll in question).

Some reports have tended to emphasize the differences between scientists and the public (see e.g. Tim McDonnell’s piece here), but in many cases the scientists and the public are more in tune than one might have thought.

The major areas of difference are highlighted in this chart:

Pew Center: Differences between scientists and the public

The biggest single gap is on the question of whether genetically modified foods are safe to eat: 88 percent of the scientists surveyed say yes versus just 37 percent of U.S. adults in general. Another area of disagreement: While half the public thinks climate change is mainly due to human activity, 87 percent of scientists hold that view. (From other surveys the percentage is even higher among climate scientists.) This probably helps explain why only 32 percent of scientists favor expanded offshore drilling versus 52 percent of the general public. On the other hand, there’s low support among both the public and scientists for expanding the use of hydraulic fracturing (fracking) to extract oil and natural gas, with just 31 percent of scientists and 39 percent of the public in favor. And while substantially more scientists than non-scientists are concerned about the growing world population (by 82 to 59 percent), that’s still a solid majority of both.



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Review: Ted (2012 movie)

As narrator Patrick Stewarts explains, back in the 1980s a lonely little boy wished for his teddy bear to come to life, and to everyone’s amazement it did. The talking bear became an instant celebrity, but after a while he faded into obscurity, like pretty much every other celebrity from the eighties.

Eventually the little boy got to be 35 years old, looking a lot like Mark Wahlberg. The bear matured as well — or got older, anyway — and now the two of them sit around smoking dope and watching television when Wahlberg isn’t working at his dead-end car rental job. They both have thick Boston accents, and Ted sounds a lot like Peter Griffin on the animated show Family Guy, which happens to have been created by Seth MacFarlane, who also co-wrote and directed this movie and supplies Ted’s voice (along with those of multiple characters on Family Guy).

Wahlberg’s girlfriend (Mila Kunis) has been with him for four years and while she gets along with Ted well enough, she thinks it’s about time for Ted to move out and get a job and his own place. Eventually Wahlberg agrees, and Ted winds up applying for a job he really doesn’t want at a grocery store. When he obscenely insults the store manager during his interview, the manager says, “Nobody has ever talked to me like that. You’re hired!”

“Shit!” says Ted.

So soon Ted is running a cash register, dating a ridiculously hot human female co-worker, and throwing parties in his low-rent apartment over a Chinese restaurant, during one of which one of the guests brings actor Sam Jones along. That name may not mean much to you, but he’s a huge deal to Ted and Wahlberg, since Jones was the star of a film they watched over and over again growing up, 1980’s Flash Gordon. When Ted phones to tell him the news, Wahlberg sneaks out of another party he’s attending with Mila Kunis to come to Ted’s and meet his childhood hero. Things get out of hand, leading to a fight between Sam Jones and an enraged Chinese neighbor unfortunately named Ming (“Death to Ming!”) while Ted squares off against Ming’s duck, named James Franco.

Meanwhile Mila Kunis has noticed that she’s been abandoned and correctly suspects where Wahlberg is. Convinced he will always put his teddy bear ahead of her, Kunis dumps Wahlberg and even agrees to go out on a date with her obnoxious but handsome and wealthy boss. Meanwhile a very odd man (Giovanni Ribisi) is increasingly determined to get Ted for his spoiled brat of a son.

Pretty much everything about this is ridiculous and extremely vulgar, but it still turns out to be pretty funny, and even sometimes touching, though it always manages to recover.


Link: http://youtu.be/9fbo_pQvU7M



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Myths about crime in the U.S.

About a week ago I had a conversation with someone who thought that crime was on the rise in the U.S., not long before I coincidentally came across this video addressing that and other misconceptions. It’s worth a few minutes of your time:


Link: http://youtu.be/LH2A0GJXmoc

As the video notes, crime has fallen quite drastically, by about half in fact, since about 1993. (By some measures, violence peaked even earlier, in the 1970s; see this earlier post.)

The video is a bit misleading on one point, however: While the U.S. incarceration rate is indeed huge in comparison with that of other countries and much higher than it used to be, in the past few years the overall prison population has gone down (link) as the result falling incarceration rates at the state level, and in 2014 the number of federal prisoners likewise declined (link) and will likely continue to do so at least over the next couple of years (link). You can read more about this (and other misconceptions about incarceration) in a short article from a year ago by Stanford University professor Keith Humphreys at this link. See also this NPR report about a September talk by Attorney General Eric Holder.

Going back farther into history, the very-long-run trend across human history seems to be toward lower and lower levels of violence, as MIT’s Stephen Pinker pointed out in his book The Better Angels of Our Nature (which I reviewed back in 2012 here). Pinker summarizes his thesis in a talk here. Pinker of course acknowledges that this decrease has not been steady or consistent, with violence spiking many times in certain regions and periods of time, and not just during wars. For example, crime and violence rose in the U.S. starting in the 1960s before the more recent fall.

The reason for the drop in crime rates since 1993 has no simple explanation. There is an interesting coincidence with the launch of anti-crime efforts by the Clinton administration that included federal funds to encourage cities to put more cops on patrol, especially in high-crime areas. Sending a lot of people to prison for long periods of time is also bound to have had some impact. But attempts to find clear reasons for the change haven’t been successful, because an explanation that seems to work in one area falls apart in another.

One interesting possibility is the link between young children’s lead exposure and their later problems with impulse control as adolescents and young adults. In particular, atmospheric lead (mainly from the use of lead antiknock compounds in gasoline) rose and then fell about 20 years ahead of the rise and fall in crime. Mother Jones magazine has a useful page on its website referencing a number of articles on that subject (link). From what I’ve read the idea sounds plausible at least as a contributing factor, but I don’t know enough to judge how important the connection might be.

Incidentally, for more underreported good news, see this post from July of 2013).



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Amusing response to the Fox & Friends attack on Disney’s Frozen

As I mentioned a couple of days ago (link), a recent segment on the Fox New Channel show Fox & Friends attacked the hit film Frozen for supposedly being unkind to men (despite the fact that it’s really not). Host Steve Doocy and his guest, Penny Young Nance of Concerned Women for America, went beyond that to suggest that presenting men as fools and villains was typical of modern movies, which are apparently all man-hating chick flicks now.

Anyway, Chris Hayes over at MSNBC had a very brief but amusing response to that, so in the spirit of equal time, here it is:


Link: http://youtu.be/wETDqiKDUmo



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Review: Frozen (2013 movie)

This hugely popular computer-animated feature from Disney is said to have been inspired by Hans Christian Andersen’s “The Snow Queen” (and in many countries was released under a version of that title), but the plot and characters are in fact completely original. In keeping with Disney tradition, it’s a musical fairy tale about a princess, but the story plays nicely against audience expectations, and as with Tangled the heroine’s love interest is a fully developed character rather than a handsome nonentity.

The music is quite good, and “Let It Go,” is probably the first hit song in history to mention fractals. There are a few minor but irritating flaws — unnecessary plot holes and a pat solution to a major story problem — but overall I quite liked it, and most people who’ve seen it appear to agree, including countless millions of little girls.

(For a variant opinion from the Bizarro world, see my earlier post today [link] about a Fox & Friends segment weirdly attacking the movie as anti-male.)

A woman in Japan reportedly became so obsessed with Frozen that she saw it repeatedly, and when she insisted her husband watch it with her and he found it merely OK, she divorced him.

Elsa (Idina Menzel) is the crown princess of a small Nordic kingdom who must keep secret her magic powers over ice and snow. Consequently she and her younger sister Anna (Kristen Bell) grow up in a closed palace, separated from one another, both suffering from loneliness and isolation until Elsa’s eventual coronation leads to a crisis. I won’t say more because the story is full of surprises.

Incidentally, their kingdom is named Arendelle, pronounced essentially the same as Arundel, a town in southern England I’ve visited. I’ve no idea whether there’s a connection.

Jennifer Lee, who previously co-wrote Wreck-It Ralph (2013), was both screenwriter and co-director. Originally the director was to be Chris Buck, best known for having directed Disney’s Oscar-winning Tarzan (1999), but given Frozen’s tight production schedule and the fact that Buck and Lee got along very well, it was decided to put Buck, a long-time artist and animator, in charge of visuals and give Lee responsibility for the story side, with both of them sharing director credit (a first for a woman in Disney animation history). This appears to have proved very successful.

Lee’s artist sister Brittney also worked on the film, designing some of the architecture and what I understand were the most elaborate costumes in Disney animation history. The Lee sisters’ relationship growing up is also said to have influenced the script.

Lee’s daughter Agatha provides the singing voice for the teenaged Anna, while five-year-old Anna was voiced by Katie Lopez, daughter of Robert Lopez and Kristen Anderson-Lopez, who wrote the movie’s songs.

Watching interviews with Jennifer Lee on the film’s Blu-ray extras, I became convinced I’d seen her as an actress in some film or other, but IMDb says I’m wrong. She’s certainly attractive and appealing enough to pull it off. (See her Wikipedia article.)


Link: http://youtu.be/R-cdIvgBCWY



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Fox & Friends weirdly attacks Disney’s Frozen as anti-male

This is just strange.

Earlier this week on the Fox News program Fox & Friends, host Steve Doocy and guest Penny Young Nance of Concerned Women for America suggested that Disney’s 2013 hit Frozen was somehow anti-male, apparently because there are male bad guys in the movie and a male hero claims at one point that all men pick their noses. (There’s an amusing disclaimer in the film’s end credits distancing Disney from this position.)

Doocy seemed particularly concerned that the animated short “Frozen Fever” (which he misleadingly refers to as a “movie”), forthcoming in March, will (he for some reason thinks) likely “depict men as evil and cold and bumblers.”

Penny Nance responded that it wasn’t just Disney. “Hollywood in general has often sent the message that men are superfluous, that they’re stupid, that they’re in the way, and if they contribute anything to a family, it’s a paycheck.”

Really? She gives no examples, and the only ones that spring to mind are a subset of sitcoms, such as Family Guy.

Doocy suggested, “It would be nice for Hollywood to have more male figures in those kinds of movies.” I’m not sure what specific kinds of movies he has in mind. It’s true that some of Disney’s best-known classic animated fairy tales (Snow White, Cinderella, The Little Mermaid, to name a few, but not Pinocchio, Dumbo, The Lion King, Aladdin, and plenty of others) have had female protagonists who end up attached to generic Prince Charmings devoid of any particular depth of characterization. Frozen, however, has a well-realized and heroic male protagonist. Maybe he’s really thinking of Maleficent but doesn’t want to mention it by name because he’s scared of Angelina Jolie.

Here’s a clip of the Fox & Friends segment in question. If you haven’t seen Frozen, be aware that this does give away one of the film’s surprises.



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Jon Stewart on the measles resurgence

Stewart (together with his staff of writers and researchers, of course) is a national treasure.

 
Meanwhile, the website Talking Points Memo reports (link) that legislators in California have introduced a bill to protect more children from well-meaning but ill-informed parents by limiting exceptions to school vaccination requirements to those based on legitimate medical reasons and (less justifiably) religious beliefs.

(Update: Apparently the bill is to eliminate all exceptions except for medical reasons, which I believe is the practice in most states now. The vaccination requirement does not extend to home-schooled children.)

(Second update: I keep reading inconsistent things about whether the California bill would eliminate religious as well as other non-medical exceptions, but it appears that the great majority states currently do allow religious exemptions that in actual practice amount to a general right for parents to opt out. In fact, among organized religions, only Christian Scientists oppose vaccination as a matter of doctrine. Some subsets of the Amish may do so as well, but that’s unclear. I’ll try to have further information on this in a later post.)

In the meantime, astronomer and science writer Phil Plait argues (link) that insulting anti-vaccine fanatics makes it even less likely they’ll change their minds. That’s a valid point, and one that far too many of us on line tend to forget. But I’m not sure those folks are very persuadable to start with, and maybe we should be more concerned about the people who don’t know which side to believe. Treating anti-vaccine types too respectfully risks giving the impression that their claims are scientifically reasonable, and the fact is they’re simply not (as Plait clearly recognizes).



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Review: Ghost Story (1981 movie)

Douglas Fairbanks Jr, John Houseman, Fred Astaire, and Melvyn Douglas are lifelong friends in a New England town who meet regularly to tell ghost stories. They’re also haunted by a decades-old secret.

Fairbanks has two sons, both played by Craig Wasson (possibly best known as the protagonist of the Brian De Palma suspense film Body Double). When one of the sons falls to his death from a New York high-rise, his brother disputes the police report labeling it a suicide. He thinks it had something to do with a strange, beautiful woman he’d been seeing before some weirdness caused him to split up with her, and he begins to wonder if there’s also a connection with whatever secret his father and friends are keeping. The mysterious woman is played by South-African born British actress Alice Krige, whom you might recall as the Borg Queen.

Ghost Story is based on a best-selling novel by Peter Straub, and it’s OK (if not all that scary) as a ghost story, but the main reason to see the film is a chance to watch four great actors near the ends of their lives. Patricia Neal (The Day the Earth Stood Still) has a relatively small part as well as Fred Astaire’s wife.

One silly but amusing in-joke: In a flashback, the younger version of Fred Astaire turns down a young woman’s invitation to dance with her, saying he can’t.


Link: http://youtu.be/upGQpr5CwMA



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