The economics of new antibiotics

The second installment of PBS NewsHour’s series on the antibiotics crisis delves into why the pharmaceutical industry has little incentive to develop new ones.

In brief, the wise approach to new antibiotics is to develop them but hold them in reserve until they’re really needed. This obviously means that revenues would be delayed. Also, unlike a new cholesterol drug that patients might take for the rest of their lives, most antibiotics are used for only a very limited amount of time.

In passing the report notes that perhaps 30 percent of antibiotics are prescribed unnecessarily, which promotes the development of drug-resistant pathogens.


Link: https://youtu.be/Smztqi1iOOM

Other parts of this series:

  1. The antibiotic crisis is not getting any better
  2. The economics of new antibiotics
  3. Getting pharmaceutical companies to develop new antibiotics
  4. Farming and antibiotics overuse


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The antibiotic crisis is not getting any better

The medical system in encountering more and more drug-resistant disease pathogens, so-called “superbugs,” and we’re not developing new antibiotics anywhere near fast enough to fight them.

One major reason is the massive overuse of antibiotics, which are too often prescribed unnecessarily, for example for viral conditions such as colds. (Antibiotics have no effect at all on viruses; they require antivirals.)

Even worse, antibiotics are given routinely to livestock because for reasons that are not entirely clear they make animals grow faster. To add insult to injury, pharmaceutical companies sell antibiotics to farmers for a tiny fraction of the price charged to human consumers. Some food companies advertise that they don’t use antibiotics, and their competitors have countered with ads falsely implying that the only thing wrong with antibiotics in livestock is antibiotic residue in the meat.

The report below aired earlier tonight on PBS NewsHour as the first of a series:


Link: https://youtu.be/F42NPOnMIwQ

Other parts of this series:

  1. The antibiotic crisis is not getting any better
  2. The economics of new antibiotics
  3. Getting pharmaceutical companies to develop new antibiotics
  4. Farming and antibiotics overuse


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Hans Rosling: Religion and population growth

In this TED Talk from 2012 Hans Rosling show data that suggest that the world’s population will not continue to explode but will likely stabilize at about 10 billion (as the United Nations estimates). This is a modest increase from the estimate he offered in the video I posted a week ago, but the basic idea remains the same.

Rosling also disputes — with hard data — the notion that there is a strong connection between religion and birth rates. In fact, better education — especially better education and equality for women — and higher rates of child survival have led to declining family size everywhere in the world.


Link: https://youtu.be/ezVk1ahRF78

More posts about Rosling on this blog can be found here. His website (maintained by his family since his death last December) is here.



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Game of Thrones: English is not their forte

Fear not, no spoilers or even a review below, just one incredibly picky gripe.

Sunday night I watched the third episode of season 7 of Game of Thrones, and one of the main actors, as well as one of the showrunners in the post-episode making-of bit, managed to mispronounce the word forte in the context of the expression “That’s not [someone’s] forte.”

That usage of the fencing term forte is often confused with the Italian word forte, spelled the same way and used in music to mean “loud.” The Italian word is pronounced with two syllables, roughly “FOR-tay,” just as the people pronounced forte on Game of Thrones.

But it’s the wrong word. It’s like called the element lead “leed.” There is a word in English that’s spelled lead and pronounced “leed,” but it doesn’t mean the metal.

As Jaime Lannister would tell you, if I’m holding a sword and you want to knock it aside, it’s to your advantage to use the part of your sword blade nearest your hand to strike the part of mine closer to the tip. (Try it with pencils or chopsticks if you don’t immediately see why.) In fencing terminology, at least in English, the near, relatively strong part of one’s blade is called the forte (pronounced “fort”) and the weaker far part the foible, both words taken from a slightly archaic form of French. You would usually want to use the forte of your sword to attack the foible of mine.

By analogy, people also have their metaphorical fortes (strengths) and foibles (weaknesses). If we say something is “not our forte” we mean “not our strength” (or not our “strong suit” if we prefer to borrow terminology from the card game bridge). If we say “it’s not our forte” and pronounce it as in Italian, we’re basically saying it’s “not our loud,” which is just weird, or at least indicative of a foible.

(Updated 2017 August 2 and 10, as usual to fix typos and try to improve the wording.)



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Shields and Brooks on the Trump White House

This is from July 21 but it’s still relevant. Mark Shields is a moderate liberal and David Brooks is a moderate conservative, which means among other things that they can talk to each other without yelling. I have my disagreements with both, sometimes strong ones, but I still find what they have to say at least interesting.

Here they talk about several things, including Senator John McCain and recent events the White House, and despite their political differences they pretty much agree with each other. They speak with respect for people they disagree with — albeit with one exception — but they they do so bluntly and honestly. I’d like to see more discussions like this from sober moderates.


Link: https://youtu.be/C3MXqcoPkMM



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Best of Rahat’s robot driver at the drive-thru

This is a best-of compilation of Rahat’s robot driver pranks.

Rahat is a magician who has made a long series of videos in which he hides behind a fake seatback to drive his car while the driver’s seat is apparently occupied by a robot, a skeleton, a Muppet, the evil puppet from the Saw movies, the animatronic monsters from Five Nights at Freddy’s, or nobody at all. In these bits the driver is a robot, and as usual the reactions range from fright to amusement to mild annoyance, but are generally pretty funny.


Link: https://youtu.be/1UxCFo8ribo

Other Rahat videos I particularly liked can be found here, and you can click this link to go to his YouTube channel, which has over five million subscribers.



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Another Beethoven flash mob

You may have seen the flash mob performing the Ode to Joy from Beethoven’s Ninth Symphony in the Plaza San Roc in Sabadell, Catalonia (in Spain). If you haven’t, you can find it here, and it’s definitely worth seeing, both for the performance and the delighted reactions of the people present.

Here’s a similar performance at a shopping mall in Tokyo:


Link: https://youtu.be/3lNaajK3Scc

And here’s another in Nuremberg.

The Ninth Symphony is so popular in Japan that it’s often just called “Number Nine.” Performances on New Year’s Day have become traditional. A truly remarkable one takes place in Osaka with one of the largest choruses ever assembled. See this link.



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Marathons and similar events delay hospital transport and cause deaths

Another video from IU professor of pediatrics Aaron Carroll cites research that marathons and similar traffic-disrupting events lead to increased death rates among older people who are delayed in getting to a hospital.


Link: https://youtu.be/owtEDcxW8ik

It seems likely that rush hour traffic would have a similar effect, but by closing roads marathons might be even more dangerous. This doesn’t mean that there should never be marathons or parades or the like, only that planners ought to think about how to minimize disrupting emergency services.



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Hans Rosling: Possible good news on population growth

The world’s growing population is a legitimate concern because it will strain numerous resources, including food, fresh water, and energy.

However, in this 10-minute video below from 2010, the late Hans Rosling argues that there is good reason to think that greater education, reduced poverty, and the expanded use of family planning can lead to a leveling off of population, something that in fact is already happening.


Link: https://youtu.be/fTznEIZRkLg

Rosling (who died last December) later revised the estimated achievable maximum to a somewhat higher figure, but his basic argument remained the same.

For more detailed and up-to-date information on the subject, including an extended presentation by Rosling lasting nearly an hour, see this link.

More posts from this blog about Hans Rosling can be found at this link. See also Rosling’s Gapminder website.



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